UNLIKE other constituencies across Ireland, Cork North Central’s permutations and computations make it a political anorak’s dream. It is extraordinarily difficult to call every time the electorate goes to the polls, and this time it will be more volatile than ever.
Even the bravest gambler would have trouble predicting the make-up of the constituency, which takes in Cork’s northside, across the River Lee to Bishopstown and Victoria Cross, as well as the county, encompassing areas such as Glanmire and Blarney.
Sitting TDs are Sinn Fein’s Jonathan O’Brien, who topped the poll in 2011, as well as Minister of State Kathleen Lynch, from Labour, Fianna Fáil’s long-serving Billy Kelleher, and Minister for European Affairs and former Lord Mayor, Dara Murphy.

Fianna Fail TD Billy Kelleher. Photo: Gareth Chaney Collins
Of the four sitting TDs, the only certainty, I predict, is that Mr Kelleher will be easily elected. Internal polling from all parties and analysts show him comfortably chugging along. Before 2011, Mr Kelleher was considered to have had an easy ride in politics, since first being elected, in 1997. He was on a winning side with a Fianna Fáil-led Government in the throes of the Celtic Tiger and he topped the poll in 2007, before the financial collapse brought the country to its knees. He was re-elected comfortably in 2011, even though the party was in national meltdown — however, this doesn’t tell the full story.
His former party colleague, Noel O’Flynn, was forced aside by the party to maximise the chance of a seat in 2011. Deputy Kelleher had to up his game while the party was rebuilding, and has had an impressive run since asking leader, Micheál Martin, for the health brief in opposition. He has risen through the ranks and was called upon to be Fianna Fáil’s director of elections this year. This, coupled with Mr O’Flynn’s decision not to run as an independent, is surely an indication that he is a safe bet.
It would also seem to be a fait accompli for Sinn Fein’s Jonathan O’Brien. Considered to be more comfortable in the colours of his beloved Cork City than in a suit, he should surely be regarded as a potential poll-topper, once again, among the people with whom he is most comfortable.
Not so fast. The party’s decision to add popular city councillor, Thomas Gould, to the ticket will dilute the Sinn Fein vote. Imposing, commanding and charismatic, Mr Gould’s booming and incendiary rhetoric will play well at the doorsteps. It has caused friction between the two camps of supporters.
Geographically close, Mr O’Brien’s supporters are unhappy that Mr Gould will cost their man votes in the heartland, while Mr Gould’s supporters are unhappy at the suggestion that he concentrate on that very heartland to allow Mr O’Brien to have a free run at retaining his seat. Yet there is also a school of thought that the constituency has gone so far against Government parties that Sinn Fein could take two seats. It seems unlikely, but not impossible.

Sinn Fein’s Jonathan O’Brien. Picture: Eddie O’Hare
That is where Anti-Austerity Alliance candidate, city councillor, Mick Barry, comes into play. Mr Barry has made no secret of the fact that it is now or never for him. Expected to do well in 2011, he didn’t make a serious dent on polling day.
He will do much better this time and will surely be there or thereabouts for a seat. Sinn Fein know he is a threat.
Mr Barry has outlined his belief, on the doorsteps, that Sinn Fein will enter an alliance with Fianna Fáil to be part of the next Government.
There has been no shortage of left-on-left barbs.
Labour suffered an unprecedented meltdown in the local elections of 2014, returning no city councillors, but Minister of State, Kathleen Lynch,has always had a good personal vote and will be hoping it turns out for her again. Privately, supporters have said she would not have decided to run unless she saw a viable way of retaining her seat.
One of the most intriguing elements is the internal fallout in Fine Gael.
But there should be enough votes in the city and county for a Fine Gael seat.
Along with former county councillor, Pat Burton, the party took 13,500 first-preference votes in 2011. However, Mr Burton outpolled Mr Murphy, who got in on transfers, and many delegates are unhappy that Senator Colm Burke was not added to the ticket, having performed admirably at the selection convention for the nomination.
Mr Murphy is not considered to have a strong personal vote, while candidates from the left-leaning parties have been at pains to paint him as out-of-touch and elitist — an accusation that Mr Murphy denies.
Canvassers for Mr Murphy have privately admitted that it is a hard sell in a constituency that has not seen much of the recovery claimed by the Government. Party strategists say Mr Murphy would have a much better chance if he was in Cork South Central and not north of the Lee.
The addition of 25-year-old barrister, Julie O’Leary, to the Fine Gael ticket, may help Mr Murphy. Largely seen as one for the future, with her glittering CV — stints in Washington DC, as well as a volunteer with the Free Legal Advice Centre in Blackpool Community Centre — Ms O’Leary would be an outstanding prospect in another election cycle.
However, her late addition and low profile will surely cost her. Yet scooping up a few thousand transfers from Ms O’Leary, at the southern end of the constituency, could see Mr Murphy over the line.
A wild card in the race is independent county councillor, Ger Keohane. The former Sinn Fein councillor has been one of the most active in his constituency, since being elected in 2014, and is building up momentum as a man ready to take on special-interest groups and party hierarchies, in the name of his constituents. His ‘man of the ordinary folk’ campaign is playing well. His stock is high in his Glanmire base, as well as in Ballyvolane, while he is originally from Gardiner’s Hill. That is three solid bases from which to work.
Green Party candidate, Oliver Moran, a software engineer, is articulate and one of the only dedicated centre-left candidates in the race.
His passion will gain him admirers, but, realistically, he is the longest of long shots to be elected.

Kathleen Lynch. Picture: Jim Coughlan
Wily campaigner, Ted Tynan, from the Workers’ Party, tends to play well in the local elections, but has never scratched the surface of what’s needed in a general election. Nevertheless, he could take a chunk of left-wing votes that may be vital to others. The old political cat may have one of his nine lives left.
Independent Thomas Kiely narrowly missed out on a city council seat in 2014, in Cork City South West, but, at the same time, never threatened the top candidates in the constituency, who outpolled him comfortably.
Little is known of self-proclaimed independent candidate, Aislinn Tongue, who has declined to speak publicly thus far.
Tomorrow: Alan Healy looks at Cork South Central.